Wait...Did You Just Say VRML???
In yesterday's post Do You Dream In 3D regarding the my predictions for the future of the web and the virtual worlds it currently houses, which was prompted by Raph Koster's post Web In World Or Web In World I spoke about my belief that one day the virtual worlds that today currently exist on the web, would someday grow up to house the web itself.
In the comments section of that post, Andrew Johnson made the following comment:
While I can understand his viewpoint, it seems to me that someone with his interest in making money from a website would be very interested in a 3D implementation of a website. I mean, a 3D web would represent more opportunity for online marketers at the least.
VRML is brought up as a reason that the 3D web won't happen. The reason? Because it hadn't already happened back when VRML was the chosen way to show 3D on the web at its peak in 1997.
This argument already has a pile of holes in it. If in 1810 someone had told a horse owner about the automobiles of the future, they might have said, "I don't need a machine for that! My horse already does all of that, and I don't need to buy all that oil and steering and brake fluid you described." Well, that may well have been true, but if Henry Ford had heard that and given up we might not have had NASCAR or the F1 circuit today.
Which brings up another point. Automobiles weren't built for racing, racing was built for automobiles. In other words, racing was a side industry created by the invention of the automobile itself. Once the 3D web becomes reality, who knows what side industries will spring from it? One I can foresee is some of the pioneers of the 3D web will make lots of money consulting. Those in the know will make money simply because they know.
Another point about the horse/automobile example is that the technology wasn't ready at the time to be able to create the automobile. At the time, it might well have seemed an invention that was too impractical, too expensive, and too hard to do. But the day eventually came where it was possible and practical at the same time.
Justifying that something doesn't make sense at the time, isn't a good way to justify that it will never happen. At one time, people thought that it was easier just to type a letter on a typewriter than on a computer. But look at the improvements the computer has made in our productivity today, even if you only consider word processors, let alone e-mail.
I often look to Second Life for an example of what the metaverse will be like, since business has already noticed it, and started to populate it. And yet, folks still refuse to admit that something like a 3D web is useful for market share and branding purposes, the same way the 2D web justified itself before transactions became easy and secure. It reminds me of the naysayers when the 2D web was just taking off business wise.
Sure, there were a lot of ridiculous companies put onto the web, and yes there was a big shakeout of the ones that didn't make fiscal sense, but in the end, here we are. Business is booming because we invented the proper precautions and securities required to successfully do business on the internet. If there is money in something, business will pave the way for it to happen.
True, today it's easier to communicate on a cell phone, or e-mail but that's because that's the way our infrastructure is currently built. The 3D web is forming and anyone who gets in on the ground floor is going to be rich. True, it's not quite viable yet, but anyone who stands in it's way is likely to be as wrong as the folks who doubted business on the internet could fly.
You can't just say something doesn't make sense because it doesn't make sense right now. Because if you do, history will add you to the list of folks who doubted Christopher Columbus, the Wright Brothers, Henry Ford, and the value of having a web presence.
In the comments section of that post, Andrew Johnson made the following comment:
I remember back in the days of VRML and all of these predictions about 3D desktops and so on. Why isn’t this great 3D internet here? Its all about usability. I don’t need 3D to read and write e-mail. I don’t need to walk down a hall and open a door to launch my web browser!
While I can understand his viewpoint, it seems to me that someone with his interest in making money from a website would be very interested in a 3D implementation of a website. I mean, a 3D web would represent more opportunity for online marketers at the least.
VRML is brought up as a reason that the 3D web won't happen. The reason? Because it hadn't already happened back when VRML was the chosen way to show 3D on the web at its peak in 1997.
This argument already has a pile of holes in it. If in 1810 someone had told a horse owner about the automobiles of the future, they might have said, "I don't need a machine for that! My horse already does all of that, and I don't need to buy all that oil and steering and brake fluid you described." Well, that may well have been true, but if Henry Ford had heard that and given up we might not have had NASCAR or the F1 circuit today.
Which brings up another point. Automobiles weren't built for racing, racing was built for automobiles. In other words, racing was a side industry created by the invention of the automobile itself. Once the 3D web becomes reality, who knows what side industries will spring from it? One I can foresee is some of the pioneers of the 3D web will make lots of money consulting. Those in the know will make money simply because they know.
Another point about the horse/automobile example is that the technology wasn't ready at the time to be able to create the automobile. At the time, it might well have seemed an invention that was too impractical, too expensive, and too hard to do. But the day eventually came where it was possible and practical at the same time.
Justifying that something doesn't make sense at the time, isn't a good way to justify that it will never happen. At one time, people thought that it was easier just to type a letter on a typewriter than on a computer. But look at the improvements the computer has made in our productivity today, even if you only consider word processors, let alone e-mail.
I often look to Second Life for an example of what the metaverse will be like, since business has already noticed it, and started to populate it. And yet, folks still refuse to admit that something like a 3D web is useful for market share and branding purposes, the same way the 2D web justified itself before transactions became easy and secure. It reminds me of the naysayers when the 2D web was just taking off business wise.
No, you don't need a web presence for business. It's just a big waste of time and money. You can't make money from the internet. Nobody's going to spend money on the internet. Not enough people will use it.
Sure, there were a lot of ridiculous companies put onto the web, and yes there was a big shakeout of the ones that didn't make fiscal sense, but in the end, here we are. Business is booming because we invented the proper precautions and securities required to successfully do business on the internet. If there is money in something, business will pave the way for it to happen.
True, today it's easier to communicate on a cell phone, or e-mail but that's because that's the way our infrastructure is currently built. The 3D web is forming and anyone who gets in on the ground floor is going to be rich. True, it's not quite viable yet, but anyone who stands in it's way is likely to be as wrong as the folks who doubted business on the internet could fly.
You can't just say something doesn't make sense because it doesn't make sense right now. Because if you do, history will add you to the list of folks who doubted Christopher Columbus, the Wright Brothers, Henry Ford, and the value of having a web presence.
Labels: The Future, Virtual Worlds
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posted by Delzo Delacroix | 8:37 AM
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